Author: ClearWater Private Wealth

Power of the Vaccine – February 6th, 2021

After a bleak week, the market roared higher. As the number of people vaccinated surpassed the number of people who contracted the disease, that is a bullish inflection. Every sector surged and commodities had a big week. The US Dollar was up slightly on the week, and there are some important resistance levels across the currencies. I covered those off on the video. Bitcoin wants to break out to new highs and sits just below resistance. The long bond yields are just short of 52-week highs after a big move up. The two year yields dropped, which is odd and we’ll keep watching for more information from the move down.

After almost every chart showed major cracks last week, this week was a full reversal of fortune. Sectors and industry groups roared. Liquid energy (Oil etc) blasted higher. Most of the commodities were running hard. Natural Gas, Oil, Uranium, Copper, Lithium and rare earths all made nice moves. The pop expected in silver/silver miners happened but quickly reversed as the reddit traders got beat up. I covered the precious metals on the video this week.

Crude oil made a new 52-week high. I continue to like the oil trade, and the associated oil companies will be rerated higher by the analyst community. As the revenue of higher oil prices starts to add up, these companies have lots of room to move higher in price. Natural Gas had a good week on the back of the cold weather enveloping North America and looks set up for another one. I also like the setup in the uranium complex as it looks strong. Cameco and the other names mining uranium, all had nice runs. It does not appear to be at the end of trade. The volume piling up is compelling.

Financials had a big week on the back of the move in yields. Technology moved up in line with the indexes, but there was a wide dispersion of performance. Google and Microsoft hit new highs, the others – NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, FB, TSLA – did not. The markets closed on new highs, so that is bullish. The last chart in the newsletter shows the market swinging higher, then lower the last five weeks. Will that trend continue?

Summary: I continue to like the commodity trades as that matches with the inflation the Fed is trying to create. America continues to do a great job rolling out the vaccines, whereas other nations are struggling. Canada is in the struggling category. The backdrop in the USA is bullish, as things are improving. It also sounds like more stimulus is coming.

To read the full article, click the link below…

Power-of-the-Vaccine-February-8-2021

ClearWater Market Commentary as of February 1st, 2021

Stocks declined sharply for the week amid much higher volatility and trading volumes. On Wednesday equities posted their worst day since October

Market Declines

The market took a while to break down, but in it’s first week of correction we are already close to the levels when the early warning triggered from the SSIH. The market confirming the SSIH breaking down is comforting but not richly profitable. It’s avoiding the carnage. When the market keeps pushing higher as my strength indexes fall, it makes me ponder a lot more about my work. The 49% level last week looked terrible, only to watch the market make higher highs Monday. By weeks end, we wiped out all of the gains for 2021 and the group of charts I rely on confirmed the break. The SSIH data spoke as bluntly as the cowboy on a sunny day. “Careful. We’ve seen these storm clouds before, even though we are currently in the sun.”

Last week’s move into tech was short lived as big names that popped up, all pulled back. However Tesla, which marginally (2%) followed the big surge up the week of the 15th, dropped 13 % from an all time high ($900) this week. Tesla has been a market darling but it has a lot of weak attributes on the chart after a significant run. I have put a daily chart of Tesla in the newsletter, as the change of character on the chart suggests Monday’s high might be a significant high. I don’t own it so its easy for me to say. These story stocks can be good
indicators of major changes.

Anyone who had a great year in 2020 expects the good times to continue. The way I analyze data, I don’t see it being as smooth as that, but I do expect a big commodity run in 2021.

The index breakouts from around the world starting the month all failed by the end of the month. That is a daunting view of global weakness. The challenge is for the vaccine to get rolled out. While the US is vaccinating 1.25 Million a day, Canada has no vaccine available and it appears to be at least another 2 weeks for a minimal shipment. This will be the next area of concern, as some countries are vaccinating quite quickly while others have no access to vaccines. This drags out the recovery.

Summary: I will continue to protect capital. As the SSIH drops even lower, it validates my bias. We are now looking for the market to turn up as all three are below 25, but quite frankly, I expect it to take a little more time for the correction. I’ll move to shorter timeframe scans to help us find buyable dips like the early November low. Let’s hit the charts.

For the full article click the link below…

Market-Declines-January-29-2021

ClearWater Market Commentary as of January 25th, 2021

Optimism about fiscal stimulus, as well as positive economic data, and an encouraging start to earning reporting season, boosted all major US stock indices to record highs.

A Fresh Look at RRSPs for 2021: A Roundup of Key Strategies for Accumulation and De-Accumulation

Now, in 2021, sixty-four years later, the plan is a centrepiece of Canadian retirement plans: occupying the dominant position once held by venerable vehicles such as the Defined Benefit (DB) pension plan. Now, with the TFSA increasingly becoming a favoured option for Canadian savers, RRSPs are sometimes being put on the back burner.

WEALTH & RISK MANAGEMENT ADVISER OF THE YEAR

Based in Calgary, Alberta, David Lush has been helping clients with retirement planning, wealth & risk management, tax planning, estate planning and financial management for over three decades.

ClearWater Market Commentary as of January 18th, 2021

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal-stimulus plan that aims to counter the affects of COVID-19. The plan is the first of two major spending initiatives Biden will seek in the first few months of his presidency.

ClearWater Market Commentary as of January 11th, 2021

Stocks jumped to record highs after Georgia election completes Blue Wave. As the US political drama dominated the first week of 2021,

Quarterly Newsletter: Ready for retirement? New year, new normal: what’s the best strategy?

As the new year begins, it’s difficult to know what kind of financial and investing challenges await us. All indications are that we will continue to live with the effects of the pandemic for some time, but those effects may not be straightforward. Last year, the markets showed themselves to be surprisingly resilient while the “real” economy and job market faced substantial
headwinds.


The way forward? Build financial resilience into your household balance sheet while maintaining your commitment to your long-term investing goals.

WINTER2021

ClearWater Market Commentary as of January 4th, 2021

The holiday shortened week saw the S&P 500 set a record high on Monday as another round of U.S. unemployment benefits and stimulus checks were announced and after Trump signed a new COVID relief bill

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