A key to achieving a financial goal
It’s human nature to generalize our goals. “I’ve got to start exercising” is a common one. But a key to achieving a goal is to first identify one specific step. For example, starting to exercise becomes taking a brisk walk every day.
A key to achieving a financial goal
It’s human nature to generalize our goals. “I’ve got to start exercising” is a common one. But a key to achieving a goal is to first identify one specific step. For example, starting to exercise becomes taking a brisk walk every day.
Is there opportunity in market volatility? When markets are volatile, everyone’s pleased with the upswings, perhaps eagerly checking out their portfolio balance. But the downswings can be another story. Maybe those portfolio balances still get checked, but nervously.
Is there opportunity in market volatility? When markets are volatile, everyone’s pleased with the upswings, perhaps eagerly checking out their portfolio balance. But the downswings can be another story. Maybe those portfolio balances still get checked, but nervously.
What will the new year bring from an investing point of view? None of us has a crystal ball, of course, but we are confident that well-diversified clients are set up to face whatever the new year has in store for us.
The S&P 500 index closed up 2 % this week. The Nasdaq 100 soared, up 3.21% which is 6.44% in the last two weeks! The charts are in an uptrend, and most of my indicators continue to point higher. All indexes closed at new highs, including the Russell. Semiconductors, airlines, home builders, hotels, all continued higher. Was this the sunrise for the next round of higher highs on Semiconductors? The ducks on the pond are all heading towards it! Looks similar to what the market did this week!
We still have some problems in the industrial commodities. They didn’t plummet, it is just that they badly underperformed the indexes. Big stuff like tech and discretionary continue to move higher. Options trading is soaring in total contracts as investors take large positions in TSLA, MSFT, FB, GOOGL. For some reason railroads and trucking rolled over while airlines turned up.
It’s not all easy out there. 84 stocks were down more than 15% on the week. Just when you think the water it safe, some significant portfolio damage shows up. I wrote a separate article on that on Saturday under the articles tab on the website.
Bond prices continued to rise this week and the bond price charts breaking out of a downtrend. An interesting chart is shown below where it looks as though the bond yields chart leads the stock market by 2-3 months. Will this signal a drop in the stock market to start the new year? The falling yields helped home builders and hurt financial stocks.
Currencies were mixed, but it looks like the Euro wants to rise. The Canadian Dollar was falling. Bitcoin made a nice move Sunday night.
Summary: Tech is going higher. Industrials also seem ready to move. Bitcoin is breaking out tonight. Commodities get more cautious. I like the gold trade setup.
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Indexes-Rocket-Higher-Nov-5
Savings and investments may be the last thing on your mind as you enjoy our all-too-short summer. We can’t blame you! We hope you and your loved ones are safe and secure and can truly enjoy the warm days ahead.
The indexes didn’t close with a meaningful percentage change, but it was a wild, wide-ranging week after quadruple options expiration. After decisively slicing the uptrend lines on Monday for many of the index charts, the market rallied throughout the week.
The big change this week was the interest rate move. While interest rates rallied, that pushed bond prices down. If an investor doesn’t want or have to be in bonds, where are they going to move the money? Probably the equity markets, which can also add fuel to the next leg of the rally. We’ll have more on the conference call.
Transports improved this week. The railway chart built a hammer candle after declining for six weeks. Airlines soared with a large weekly price bar moving above the weekly closing levels of the last 10 weeks! Hotels popped with a large outside bar and I think it was more than Greg travelling through the Rocky Mountains. The Banff Springs Hotel on the left is a reminder of why people love to travel. The gambling index also gave me one buy signal a few weeks ago, but the chart hasn’t turned up meaningfully. When I group those three industries together, a macro trend forming looks like investors are moving towards travel and entertainment stocks.
The energy crunch worldwide seems to be forming. Cameco as a rep for uranium names has moved 25% each way, all in September! Natural gas availability in Europe and Russia seems to be very, very tight. The situation in the North American inventory continues to tighten as well with Hurricane Ida struggles. The recent weeks have tightened slightly, not large. The bigger issue is that week after week, we continue to tighten. When will production catch up with demand? Energy has been the #1 sector over the last month. Oil and gas are being used for power generation worldwide as renewables come up short on meeting demand.
Consumer Discretionary (Cyclicals) have been the second-best performer. The sector chart for the XLY looks ready to break out to new highs. Tesla is turning up. Ford and GM both started to turn higher. Toyota Motors looks good as well. Check the sector.
Summary: Buy signals in a few industry groups. Bitcoin is on a long 18-month trend line this week. We need to see the September downtrend on the $NDX break to the upside this week. Trade well but be careful of a downside break.
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Fall-Run-September-25-2021
Savings and investments may be the last thing on your mind as you enjoy our all-too-short summer. We can’t blame you! We hope you and your loved ones are safe and secure and can truly enjoy the warm days ahead.
The S&P 500 closed on a new high again. The defensive leadership really surged on Thursday and Friday, as we moved through Options Expiration. This is starting to be a meaningful trend that worries me.
Commodities had a huge up week, but commodity related trades were a mixed bag. Oil names were poor considering oil was up big. Gold, Silver and industrial metals like Copper had a good week and the miners did too. There are some charts below detailing the difficulty with the US Dollar trade coming up and it is important to check the US dollar as the week progresses.
Last week I was wondering about the weakness in commodities and that was certainly answered this week. Boom Baby!
Once again, the stocks declining big outpaced the stocks up big. 460 stocks were up big and more than 600 were down big. That happened last week too but it was almost even last week with a little more to the downside. It’s getting worse is what I am saying.
Bond yields continue to moderate, helping the gold trade as well.
The currencies are tightly wound as the US Dollar has pulled back for two weeks. We are about to see if that is going to continue or if we will get a surprise reversal that sends commodities lower. Bitcoin broke its major uptrend line this week.
The Bullish percent indexes and other indicators are at or near all-time highs for breadth. On the video I did a look back to see how bullish that is. It actually is a little cautionary. I would encourage you to follow it along as I review 5 past peaks.
Summary: All the indexes made higher highs this week. The leadership by the defensive areas of the market is starting to make me pause. Financials were oddly below average this week, even though banks reported stellar numbers. Oil rallied but energy stocks didn’t. I want to stay cautious on adding to energy until that improves. These weak cyclical signals are concerning to me. Stay bullish with tighter stops.
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Keep-Your-Guard-Up-April-16-2021Calgary Alberta
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