The initiation thrust of July 9th, turned out to be a dud. The market sold off Thursday and Friday. While the percentage down was relatively small, the damage under the indexes was very obvious. After JPM reported on Tuesday, not much positive happened. We migrated lower and even the large caps started to be sold.

The dollar is at a key inflection point. It has not broken out yet, but it is definitely impacting the commodity trade broadly. I covered commodities on the video, but not as much in this newsletter. The commodities look challenged at best, and as I look at rest of the market crumbling, I just want to turtle away and protect capital. For those interested, three sectors have rising PPO’s on the daily charts. Utilities, Consumer Staples and Real Estate. All the rest gave sell signals in the last few weeks. The SPX gave a PPO sell signal on Friday as well. With negative divergences everywhere, hunkering down for a few weeks looks like the course of action.

The dollar didn’t go anywhere it hasn’t been in the past few weeks, but it closed at the top of the price range, rising from the bottom of last week’s price bar.

The big banks couldn’t find buyers showing up for work on their earnings results. I locked in some profits on tech and some energy. I continue to be amazed at the selling in energy stocks, but I really don’t need to ride them all the way down. I’ll just buy them when they turn back up. For now, holding cash appears prudent.

Summary: The SPX index had new closing highs on Monday and new intraday highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Outside the big index, selling was abundant. The Nasdaq 100 60-minute chart finally broke its’ uptrend. Commodities look questionable, and with so many sectors giving PPO sell signals, it looks like a good time to roll away from this rally based on my indicators.

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Grizzly-Outlook-July-17-2021