How to find “tax free” room lying around the house:
it is only a matter of time before these vehicles are fully maxed. When this happens, there are a few additional options you may consider to continue receiving the benefits of tax efficient growth.
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Market Weakness? September 19th, 2020
The US markets closed lower with a small drop in the technology names. Energy was broadly up 3% but exploration and production was up 6%. Crude moved up almost 10%. More moves in the ag space occurred with the solid moves in Corn and Soybeans. Materials including industrial metals held up fairly well. Semiconductors held up on the back of a big acquisition bid by Nvidia.
The trend line on the $SPX broke and the Nasdaq 100 continued lower. Small caps were up on the week and to round it all out, the S&P 1500 held its trend line. This mixed picture is weakening. While market drops are rarely easy to trade as volatility picks up, the mixed results this week make it more difficult.
An explanation of how tricky the market is, the indexes were down 1-2%. Stocks up 10% or more outpaced stocks down 10% or more by 8x. For stocks up more than 5%, it was 2.5x more up than down.
Commodities were up on the week, with oil rising 10%. Oil moved up more than $3 and closed at $41.32. Copper moved up along with lithium and the rare earth metals. Steel stocks rose, coal stocks rose, agriculture names had a big week.
In currencies the Yen had a strong week. On the video, I cover off a relationship of Gold and the Yen. Essentially, when the Yen goes higher, I might expect Gold to go higher. We’ll watch for that this week. The relationship has broken down over the past year so I am watching to see if it reasserts itself.
As the market steps lower, the first part of the index waterfall was rather quick. It appears we are starting another drop down with Friday’s move below support. Because Friday was Quadruple Options Expiration, my caution level is high. But the selling did not intensify as we broke lower. I would be very cautious taking aggressive index positions either way. Watch for an upside reversal.
Summary: Ahead of the election, some patience is needed here. But it is a good time to stalk the names you want to own. Watch the charts for bottoming patterns. Some of the big names are off 20%. I did buy some commodity related names. It definitely seems to be a rotation going on from high fliers to cyclical economy stocks so far.
Let’s jump into the charts. Click on the image below to view the full newsletter in PDF format.
Mining the Madness- September 13th, 2020
The US markets closed lower with another drop in the technology names. This week saw a decline in almost every sector. The materials were marginally positive, avoiding the downward suction. Materials includes fertilizers, chemicals, mining names to list a few. With the solid moves in Corn and Soybeans, the fertilizer names held up. Energy was the worst sector once again. Technology, Communications and Semiconductors were demonstrative of the technology weakness.
The former leaders were hit again. Most of the big names (FANMAG) are
hovering around the 50-day moving average. That’s significantly lower in 7
trading days, but the upside euphoria was also significant leading into the
drop. Tesla was down another 10% trying to bounce off the 50-day. The week
was a little chilling, much like snow showing up on the mountain peaks this
week. As the season changes from summer to fall, it seems the market chill is
upon us.
Commodities were down on the week, with oil falling hard. Oil moved down
toward a support level around $35 to finish at $37.33. The weekly low was
$36.13. If the support at $35-$36 doesn’t hold, $29 would be a next stop
target. Yecch! In currencies the British Pound got smoked for 7 cents in a couple of weeks. The US dollar moved up, and most of the commodity currencies were weaker. That’s not great! The Euro and the Yen traded sideways. Both the European and Japanese stock markets were up this week, in a big contrast to the US drop.
Summary: Tech continues to be sold. My courage to be long is suspended. Ahead of the election, some patience is needed here. But
it is a good time to stalk the names you want to own. Watch the charts for bottoming patterns. Some of the big names are off 20%.
Let’s jump into the charts
Welcome To The Underground- August 22nd, 2020
The US markets closed higher on the week with the $SPX breaking out and closing at new all-time highs a smidgeon under 3400. Breadth indicators weakened considerably in the face of the new highs on the index as Apple soared to a $2 Trillion market cap.
My bullish optimism is now being tempered with the changes I am seeing in behind the glamour of the lofty index. The Schnell Strength Index is still in the 90’s but it weakened 3% intraday on Friday, an Options Expiration day with a new high for the market. 3% is no big deal, but the last 4 days of this week saw more decliners than
advancers on both exchanges as the market pushed higher. This week, we saw a drop below the trend line for the advance/decline line measured on many different markets. The Nasdaq Composite, the NYSE Composite, the Canadian market, the mid caps, small caps and the S&P 1500. Continue Reading
SPY On The New High- August 15th, 2020
The US markets closed higher on the week with the SPY ETF breaking out to all time highs. With all of my breadth data, almost everything is positive here. My SSIH indicator drifted lower with the weakness in gold and a few other areas to 95.8 %. I hear all the noise around me about divergences but the price and momentum action continue to say higher.
Last week I mentioned “Bonds made a very important hammer candle this week giving some reasons to be be bullish the banks. The Bank ETF was up on the week nicely. This bond hammer follows last week’s Fed meeting,
so this is a bullish time to look for changes.” Well, this week, bond yields soared. It was a massive change that bodes well for financials. Continue Reading
Bouncing Banks? August 8th, 2020
The US markets closed higher on the week with the IWM small caps ETF joining the party and moving above the June highs. With all of my breadth data, absolutely everything is positive here. My SSIH indicator moderated marginally, still at a blazingly solid 97.6 %. I here all the noise around me about topping but the price and momentum action continue to say higher.
Breadth is currently rock solid. Bonds made a very important hammer candle this week giving some reasons to
be be bullish the banks. The Bank ETF was up on the week nicely. This bond hammer follows last week’s Fed meeting, so this is a bullish time to look for changes.
US Markets Close On The Highs- July 31st, 2020
The US markets closed higher, with a big lift on Friday afternoon. This closed out the day, the week and the month almost at the top of the $SPX bar. Thursday, four of the big cap tech names reported and three of four beat the numbers. The Nasdaq 100 had its highest weekly close, but slightly below the July highs. Let’s not split hairs here. It was a big bullish finish to the month. Continue Reading
A Confluence Of Trend Lines- July 24th, 2020
The US markets drifted lower, with the leading large-cap tech names selling off and moving below their trend lines. Materials and retail now have the highest SCTR rankings for sectors. Both the Nasdaq and SPX made higher closing highs early in the week. Continue Reading
Chilling Charts- June 27th, 2020
The markets closed lower on all the indexes this week. After seeing some all time record volumes, we started to see changes in the index performance. While the herd is still huddled in the US large caps, selling was more pronounced as you look down the size scale of market capitalization. (How large the company is based on multiplying the number of shares by the price per share). There were notable differences this week. Canada, a smaller market, broke the advance/decline line for the uptrend and this is a caution flag for the US. Weaker, smaller markets typically break before the US does. Sweden is a good clue for Europe, and it held up better than I expected. I covered world indexes in the commodity video. So many cyclical (they cycle up and down with the economy) charts have started to decline after touching their 200 DMA. Just scrolling through the Dow 30, JPM, PG,MCD, MRK, IBM, VZ, KO,DIS,TRV, AXP,GS,MMM, DD,UTX, CVX, RTX, CAT, XOM have all failed at the 200 DMA. You can big banks like C and BAC to the list. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the highest volume ever on Friday. The SPX also recorded a high volume day. We have had extreme volume days in each of the last three weeks. One after the Fed meeting, Quad options, and now the final Friday before quarter end. This is a twitchy market, slowly showing that times are changing from the controlled uptrend.
From last week’s newsletter : “From a high level, the SSIH indicator moved lower by another 5%. That level of movement can happen within an uptrend. The big thing for me is the 5% down day on the $SPX the prior week after the Fed. Those days don’t usually show up in uptrends. So caution is creeping in. Now that we have pushed through options expiration on really high volume, I’m watching to see are people starting to price in the weak earnings for the second quarter? Or is the market starting to focus on the COVID 19 resurgence in some of the more populated states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona? We are about to find out.”
Summary: The COVID surge is changing the market as is the move towards earnings season in July. Caution is warranted. Tighten stops. Serious storm clouds on the horizon.
Let’s jump into the charts.
Quarterly Newsletter: Feeling fearful when markets turn? Time for a risk reality check
Feeling fearful when markets turn? Time for a risk reality check
Depending on your age and investing experience, the market downturn in March caused by the COVID-19 crisis may have been a real shock or just the latest in a series of unfortunate events in your investing life. Either way, these types of market gyrations bring to the fore our personal relationship with risk. While we may understand risk as a concept,
especially easy to do when the markets are up, it takes a serious downturn to face our emotional reactions to risk. If you’ve been feeling anxious, it may be time to reevaluate your tolerance for risk. Continue Reading
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