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ACPI Client Portal – Day 1 Client Instructions

Aligned Capital Partners Inc. (ACPI), our registered dealer, officially changed custodians on July 21st 2023, from National Bank Independent Network (NBIN) to CI Investment Services Inc. (CIIS). Although CI may not be a familiar name to most, they are an independent Canadian company offering global asset management and wealth management advisory services holding more than $330 billion in assets (as at June 30, 2022). Overall, this change will allow our team to more effectively and efficiently service our clientele, while maintaining our extensive and flexible product portfolio.

Indexes Rocket Higher – November 6, 2021

The S&P 500 index closed up 2 % this week. The Nasdaq 100 soared, up 3.21% which is 6.44% in the last two weeks! The charts are in an uptrend, and most of my indicators continue to point higher. All indexes closed at new highs, including the Russell. Semiconductors, airlines, home builders, hotels, all continued higher. Was this the sunrise for the next round of higher highs on Semiconductors? The ducks on the pond are all heading towards it! Looks similar to what the market did this week!

We still have some problems in the industrial commodities. They didn’t plummet, it is just that they badly underperformed the indexes. Big stuff like tech and discretionary continue to move higher. Options trading is soaring in total contracts as investors take large positions in TSLA, MSFT, FB, GOOGL. For some reason railroads and trucking rolled over while airlines turned up.

It’s not all easy out there. 84 stocks were down more than 15% on the week. Just when you think the water it safe, some significant portfolio damage shows up. I wrote a separate article on that on Saturday under the articles tab on the website.

Bond prices continued to rise this week and the bond price charts breaking out of a downtrend. An interesting chart is shown below where it looks as though the bond yields chart leads the stock market by 2-3 months. Will this signal a drop in the stock market to start the new year? The falling yields helped home builders and hurt financial stocks.

Currencies were mixed, but it looks like the Euro wants to rise. The Canadian Dollar was falling. Bitcoin made a nice move Sunday night.

Summary: Tech is going higher. Industrials also seem ready to move. Bitcoin is breaking out tonight. Commodities get more cautious. I like the gold trade setup.

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Fall Run? – September 25, 2021

The indexes didn’t close with a meaningful percentage change, but it was a wild, wide-ranging week after quadruple options expiration. After decisively slicing the uptrend lines on Monday for many of the index charts, the market rallied throughout the week.

The big change this week was the interest rate move. While interest rates rallied, that pushed bond prices down. If an investor doesn’t want or have to be in bonds, where are they going to move the money? Probably the equity markets, which can also add fuel to the next leg of the rally. We’ll have more on the conference call.

Transports improved this week. The railway chart built a hammer candle after declining for six weeks. Airlines soared with a large weekly price bar moving above the weekly closing levels of the last 10 weeks! Hotels popped with a large outside bar and I think it was more than Greg travelling through the Rocky Mountains. The Banff Springs Hotel on the left is a reminder of why people love to travel. The gambling index also gave me one buy signal a few weeks ago, but the chart hasn’t turned up meaningfully. When I group those three industries together, a macro trend forming looks like investors are moving towards travel and entertainment stocks.

The energy crunch worldwide seems to be forming. Cameco as a rep for uranium names has moved 25% each way, all in September! Natural gas availability in Europe and Russia seems to be very, very tight. The situation in the North American inventory continues to tighten as well with Hurricane Ida struggles. The recent weeks have tightened slightly, not large. The bigger issue is that week after week, we continue to tighten. When will production catch up with demand? Energy has been the #1 sector over the last month. Oil and gas are being used for power generation worldwide as renewables come up short on meeting demand.

Consumer Discretionary (Cyclicals) have been the second-best performer. The sector chart for the XLY looks ready to break out to new highs. Tesla is turning up. Ford and GM both started to turn higher. Toyota Motors looks good as well. Check the sector.

Summary: Buy signals in a few industry groups. Bitcoin is on a long 18-month trend line this week. We need to see the September downtrend on the $NDX break to the upside this week. Trade well but be careful of a downside break.

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Hitting New Highs – March 12, 2021

The S&P 500 smoothed out its path this week. After a brief dip down on Monday, the S&P pushed up all week and had a good close into the weekend. The leading areas of the market are energy, financials, consumer discretionary, marijuana, cryptocurrencies. It doesn’t end there as industrial companies like Boeing are breaking out to the upside. All the transports including railways, trucking, and airlines are all pushing higher. Having industrials and transports push to new highs is bullish. Tech continued to lag as investors focus on the reopening economy trades.

The NASDAQ market was harder to trade as it was in yo-yo mode. It was alternating between up and down all week. With the stimulus checks coming out this week, and the vaccination process going extremely well, I expect more upside across the market but less so in tech than in the other leadership areas.

I mentioned gold was weak last week but the miners started to behave. Gold was a little better this week but the miners were even better. I like buying near the lows when I’m buying commodities, so gold miners fit the bill this week. If they don’t hold up, I’m out. I do like the set up as it starting to shape up, so I explained that in this weeks newsletter.

Global markets are bullish as many of them broke out to new highs across Europe, Canada, Mexico and Russia. Seeing this broad strength encourages me to focus on being bullish. The Schnell Strength Indicators (SSI) are all popping higher which makes them supportive of the new highs.

Summary: The clues given last week by the SSI indicators were to be bullish. We reluctantly agreed with them and that seems to be the correct direction. That’s the strength of using data rather than intuition. Now I want to focus on continuing to follow strength into the market. I’ve put bearish thoughts aside because we have the new stimulus and we also have an infrastructure bill that should be going through the government offices this month. Commodities continue to perform well which also suggests demand. I’m focused on the upside.

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Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas from the ClearWater Private Wealth

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas from the ClearWater Private Wealth Team! Although the holidays will look very different for everyone this year, we still have many things to be grateful for. Keeping this in mind, 2020 has been an exceptionally hard year for many people and unfortunately local charities have not been exempt from this hardship. This year, we have made a donation on behalf of our clients to a couple of charities that I have worked with over the years.

ClearWater Market Commentary as of October 16th, 2020

The Bank of Canada has signaled an improvement in the economic environment by reducing the emergency measures it put in place last spring to stabilize..

ClearWater Market Commentary as of October 13th, 2020

Canadian markets climbed last week with the driver being the better than expected economic data and the anticipation that another…

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