What will the new year bring from an investing point of view? None of us has a crystal ball, of course, but we are confident that well-diversified clients are set up to face whatever the new year has in store for us.
The markets made their high Monday morning and traded lower all week. This is a difficult week to analyze where the markets want to go. Why? Because my strength indicators, which I trust and invest based on, are breaking down hard. Meanwhile, the Advance/Decline, net new highs, and other metrics are strong. So strong, they look like no impending danger.
Last week, we had great price action across the globe. I expected that to continue. When the market doesn’t do what we expect, we need to watch for winds of change. This week, that is particularly true. The newsletter doesn’t suggest new positions this week. Even areas I want to see perform well, I will probably avoid, because the market has some very precarious signals underneath. I don’t need to be jumping every week, when the potential
for a rip lower is increasing. More outside bars and inside bars – mean indecision.
What I do know, is in the background, a large number of my charts went from positive to negative this week while the $SPX only dropped 1.5%. I trust my strength indexes a lot because I created them to protect my capital. I want out before or near the top of the market. I invest when I have tailwinds and right now, we have swirling winds at best with numerous charts extremely stretched.
A phrase from Dan Fitzpatrick – “Expect the expected.” I expected the markets to continue to push higher on Biden’s agenda. If it doesn’t play out, I’ll check my work and be careful. That is where I am at this week.
The newsletter below is focused on showing the significant extremes of the market, complete with negative divergence and a sell signal on the Nasdaq 100. It also shows the euphoria that hit the Nasdaq Composite to start the year. This isn’t a subtle ‘one-off’ clue. This is an absolute bomb, suggesting extreme caution. All of a sudden, from out of nowhere, the Nasdaq volume is crazy, whereas the Nasdaq 100 is fine.
Click below to view the whole pdf document….Looks-Like-Exhaustion-January-15-2021
As the new year begins, it’s difficult to know what kind of financial and investing challenges await us. All indications are that we will continue to live with the effects of the pandemic for some time, but those effects may not be straightforward. Last year, the markets showed themselves to be surprisingly resilient while the “real” economy and job market faced substantial
The way forward? Build financial resilience into your household balance sheet while maintaining your commitment to your long-term investing goals.
When the time comes, will you be ready? The transition to retirement can be a real challenge for many of us. In fact, a 2019 poll by a major Canadian fi nancial institution found that more than a quarter (27 percent) of retired Canadians regret retiring and an almost equal number (23 percent) have tried re-entering the labour market.
Click below to read the full version of our newsletter.WINTER2020-1
Another meager week. Feels like we are on the road to nowhere. Barely a ripple on the Nasdaq between the 5 closes. Flat water. The Advance/decline data are positive for the week. My Schnell Strength Index fell back below 75 adding caution. I have one chart that keeps track of wide differences in my momentum data. It is giving a signal like the March lows! So be open to the upside. With
the second COVID wave accelerating, is the market going to price in a second shutdown or just a massive prevention plan of masks and distancing? It is up for debate as to which way we break.
One week was a pause, but I certainly didn’t want to see more weakness this week. It wasn’t much, and we didn’t have big down days (Monday was 1%). But you can’t go up without momentum either. Big tech reports this week. Thursday night is the elephant on the agenda with AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and FB. MSFT is Tuesday night.
Financials were up a little, but yields were up big. Banks and brokers are
both trying to work higher. I spent a little time on yields on the video, but
they were up bigly.
Industrials pulled back, and the rails broke the uptrend. The last three of
those rail chart trend breaks coincided with multi month weakness, so I’m
choking on that chart. Oil names rallied 3% even though crude moved down on the week. As we hunt for the secondary low in oil stocks, I’ve broken that strategy out in detail this week. It’s up for debate if they are ready to go.
Summary: With the pullback on my strength indicators, it adds caution. The dropping US dollar may continue to help commodities. I was nice to see $USD continue lower. Another down week on the dollar could really give commodities a lift as charts like Copper, Steel, EEM, URA, XOP are set up. Not so much in gold, but in the other names. The equity activity this week was as muted as at this ferry ramp. Nothing exciting on a dead end road.
Let’s jump into the charts. Click below to view the full PDF.Its-Up-For-Debate
I was excited to see the indexes rally this week as my charts were leaning that way last week. I was disappointed in the Nasdaq 100 rally failing all day Friday while other areas of the market pushed up. Utilities, REITS, financials and even energy started to rally. Crude oil is down hard, but the oil co’s rallied on Friday? The only sector to end the week in the red was energy – the un-love continues. We have young solar companies with bigger market caps than XOM. Suncor is near the COVID lows with crude $30 higher.
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