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Uptrend Continues – February 13th 2021

The market soared through the presidential election, the storming of the capitol, the second impeachment, and the subsequent finalization of that 3-month period. Amazing in hindsight. Since the first day of November, the markets have been very bouyant. The Nasdaq volume, particularly bouyant. Record setting in fact. Again! While the Nasdaq volume and price continues to soar, the $SPX had it’s lowest volume since August, with the Christmas and Thanksgiving period lower * but we see those periods as normally low volume. The current rift between large cap volume and Nasdaq bizarre volumes goes into my analysis as cautionary for the current memes of clean-tech and biotech. We might also find the news media focusing more on the economy, rather than the gamification of stocks here.

The US rollout is going extremely well now, with a 7-day average of 1.66 Million/day (11Million/week). Just to help understand how good that is, the Canadian population is increasingly frustrated, falling to #52 on the world ranking for vaccine rollout. Tim Horton’s, the Canadian Coffee company, used to have an annual promotion called “Rol-l-l up the rim to win”. The Cdn vaccine rollout is now a joke as the picture suggests. Congrats for the rollout speed in the USA. I think the strong performance of the US vaccine is supplying the continued strength in the markets even at high sales/stock price ratios.

Crude oil made another new 52-week high and energy was the top sector of the week. While I am bullish liquid energy (oil, gas, diesel, natgas) over the near term, I am also bullish over the annual time frame as long as we don’t get a new virus strain that roils the world. A dramatic shortage of capital is constraining new drilling as old reservoirs deplete. This will eventually balance (2022?) but currently it looks very supportive of higher prices. So does OPEC throttling production.

Financials had another big week on the back of the move in yields. Broker/dealers soared. The KBE bank ETF is close to new 5 year highs. As the move in yields still has room to move, this might be a nice area to think about as it breaks above recent consolidation.

Summary: I continue to like the commodity trades as that matches with the inflation the Fed is trying to create. The backdrop in the USA is bullish, as things are improving. It also sounds like more stimulus is coming. Happily, the political focus will diminish for now.

I spent the Sunday with the family for Valentine’s Day. That created a newsletter delay. Let’s hit the charts.

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Market Declines

The market took a while to break down, but in it’s first week of correction we are already close to the levels when the early warning triggered from the SSIH. The market confirming the SSIH breaking down is comforting but not richly profitable. It’s avoiding the carnage. When the market keeps pushing higher as my strength indexes fall, it makes me ponder a lot more about my work. The 49% level last week looked terrible, only to watch the market make higher highs Monday. By weeks end, we wiped out all of the gains for 2021 and the group of charts I rely on confirmed the break. The SSIH data spoke as bluntly as the cowboy on a sunny day. “Careful. We’ve seen these storm clouds before, even though we are currently in the sun.”

Last week’s move into tech was short lived as big names that popped up, all pulled back. However Tesla, which marginally (2%) followed the big surge up the week of the 15th, dropped 13 % from an all time high ($900) this week. Tesla has been a market darling but it has a lot of weak attributes on the chart after a significant run. I have put a daily chart of Tesla in the newsletter, as the change of character on the chart suggests Monday’s high might be a significant high. I don’t own it so its easy for me to say. These story stocks can be good
indicators of major changes.

Anyone who had a great year in 2020 expects the good times to continue. The way I analyze data, I don’t see it being as smooth as that, but I do expect a big commodity run in 2021.

The index breakouts from around the world starting the month all failed by the end of the month. That is a daunting view of global weakness. The challenge is for the vaccine to get rolled out. While the US is vaccinating 1.25 Million a day, Canada has no vaccine available and it appears to be at least another 2 weeks for a minimal shipment. This will be the next area of concern, as some countries are vaccinating quite quickly while others have no access to vaccines. This drags out the recovery.

Summary: I will continue to protect capital. As the SSIH drops even lower, it validates my bias. We are now looking for the market to turn up as all three are below 25, but quite frankly, I expect it to take a little more time for the correction. I’ll move to shorter timeframe scans to help us find buyable dips like the early November low. Let’s hit the charts.

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A Fresh Look at RRSPs for 2021: A Roundup of Key Strategies for Accumulation and De-Accumulation

Now, in 2021, sixty-four years later, the plan is a centrepiece of Canadian retirement plans: occupying the dominant position once held by venerable vehicles such as the Defined Benefit (DB) pension plan. Now, with the TFSA increasingly becoming a favoured option for Canadian savers, RRSPs are sometimes being put on the back burner.


Based in Calgary, Alberta, David Lush has been helping clients with retirement planning, wealth & risk management, tax planning, estate planning and financial management for over three decades.

Looks Like Exhaustion – January 15th, 2021

The markets made their high Monday morning and traded lower all week. This is a difficult week to analyze where the markets want to go. Why? Because my strength indicators, which I trust and invest based on, are breaking down hard. Meanwhile, the Advance/Decline, net new highs, and other metrics are strong. So strong, they look like no impending danger.

Last week, we had great price action across the globe. I expected that to continue. When the market doesn’t do what we expect, we need to watch for winds of change. This week, that is particularly true. The newsletter doesn’t suggest new positions this week. Even areas I want to see perform well, I will probably avoid, because the market has some very precarious signals underneath. I don’t need to be jumping every week, when the potential
for a rip lower is increasing. More outside bars and inside bars – mean indecision.

What I do know, is in the background, a large number of my charts went from positive to negative this week while the $SPX only dropped 1.5%. I trust my strength indexes a lot because I created them to protect my capital. I want out before or near the top of the market. I invest when I have tailwinds and right now, we have swirling winds at best with numerous charts extremely stretched.

A phrase from Dan Fitzpatrick – “Expect the expected.” I expected the markets to continue to push higher on Biden’s agenda. If it doesn’t play out, I’ll check my work and be careful. That is where I am at this week.

The newsletter below is focused on showing the significant extremes of the market, complete with negative divergence and a sell signal on the Nasdaq 100. It also shows the euphoria that hit the Nasdaq Composite to start the year. This isn’t a subtle ‘one-off’ clue. This is an absolute bomb, suggesting extreme caution. All of a sudden, from out of nowhere, the Nasdaq volume is crazy, whereas the Nasdaq 100 is fine.

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Quarterly Newsletter: Ready for retirement? New year, new normal: what’s the best strategy?

As the new year begins, it’s difficult to know what kind of financial and investing challenges await us. All indications are that we will continue to live with the effects of the pandemic for some time, but those effects may not be straightforward. Last year, the markets showed themselves to be surprisingly resilient while the “real” economy and job market faced substantial

The way forward? Build financial resilience into your household balance sheet while maintaining your commitment to your long-term investing goals.


Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas from the ClearWater Private Wealth

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas from the ClearWater Private Wealth Team! Although the holidays will look very different for everyone this year, we still have many things to be grateful for. Keeping this in mind, 2020 has been an exceptionally hard year for many people and unfortunately local charities have not been exempt from this hardship. This year, we have made a donation on behalf of our clients to a couple of charities that I have worked with over the years.

2020 Year End Tax Planning

2020 will no doubt go down as one of the most monumentally disruptive and headline-intense years on record. Nonetheless, even a global pandemic is no excuse not to get your planning ducks in a row and consider ways to economize on taxes and plan your wealth strategies for the 2020 year end. As we enter the final weeks of 2020, we’ve listed a few helpful strategies that may be useful across..

Quarterly Newsletter: Ready for retirement? How to find out before you do it

When the time comes, will you be ready? The transition to retirement can be a real challenge for many of us. In fact, a 2019 poll by a major Canadian fi nancial institution found that more than a quarter (27 percent) of retired Canadians regret retiring and an almost equal number (23 percent) have tried re-entering the labour market.

Click below to read the full version of our newsletter.


Changing Employment? Pension Options Explained.

Accepting a severance package or forced retirement from work is a significant milestone. With the world an even more uncertain place in 2020, there is a lot to learn, and learn quickly.

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